Weekly Geopolitical Report - The 2016 Mid-Year Geopolitical Outlook (June 27, 2016)

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The 2016 Mid-Year Geopolitical Outlook (June 27, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady

As is our custom, we update our geopolitical outlook for the remainder of the year as the first half comes to a close. This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of potential geopolitical issues that we believe will dominate the international landscape for the rest of the year. It is not designed to be exhaustive; instead, it focuses on the “big picture” conditions that we believe will affect policy and markets going forward. They are listed in order of importance.

Issue #1: The Rise of Populism

Issue #2: The U.S. Elections

Issue #3: The South China Sea

Issue #4: Lone Wolf Islamic Terrorism

Issue #5: The New Oil World

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These reports were prepared by Confluence Investment Management LLC and reflect the current opinion of the authors. Opinions expressed are current as of the date shown and are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward-looking statements expressed are subject to change. This is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Information provided in this report is for educational and illustrative purposes only and should not be construed as individualized investment advice or a recommendation. Investments or strategies discussed may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial circumstances.