Research & News
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Where’s the Recession? Examining Employment (August 14, 2023)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF In August of last year, our yield-curve indicator signaled an inversion, which implies that a recession is set to occur within 16 months, on average. And so, we are still within range of a recession occurring by year’s end. However, the economic data continues to show improvement, raising… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 11, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Today’s Comment discusses the following key topics: why the Federal Reserve may be closer to reaching its 2% inflation target than investors realize, our concerns about the regional banking system, and how rising crime in South America complicates U.S. efforts to build… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 10, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning! Today’s Comment will focus on three key topics: the growing rift between the U.S. and China over semiconductors, possible threats to the European energy markets, and the White House’s latest attempt to mediate ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel. Another… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (August 10, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Oil prices are challenging the upper end of the trading range but so far have failed to breakout above that level. (Source: Barchart.com) Commercial crude oil inventories rose 6.8 mb, well above the 3.0 mb build forecast. The SPR rose 1.0 mb. In the… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 9, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with the latest news on China’s deteriorating relations with the West and the problems in its domestic economy. We next review a wide range of other international and U.S. developments with the potential to affect the financial markets… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 8, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with new evidence of military aggressiveness from the China/Russia bloc, which we continue to believe will produce risks for investors exposed to China or to companies dependent on China. We next review a wide range of other international… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Economics of National Defense in Great Power Competition (August 7, 2023)
Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Tensions between the United States and China continue to worsen, with the two nations hurtling toward each other in a geopolitical game of chicken that, in a worst case scenario, could potentially end up in war. In the distance, a few possible off-ramps still hold promise, but the two powers… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 7, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with several items related to China and its relations with the rest of the world. We next review a wide range of other international and U.S. developments with the potential to affect the financial markets today, including news… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 4, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning! Today’s Comment will discuss three topics: recent optimism about the global economy, the Bank of Japan’s recent intervention in bond markets, and the increase in global defense spending due to the rift between the U.S. and China. Turning Tide: While… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 3, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning! Today’s Comment will explore three key topics: the U.S. deficit, central bank policy, and the U.K.’s post-Brexit economy. First, we will discuss the U.S. deficit and what it may mean for bond yields. Second, we will explain why other central… Read More »