Asset Allocation Quarterly
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Fourth Quarter 2021)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Although we expect the recovery’s rapid pace of growth to slow markedly, we believe the probability of a recession within our three-year forecast period is low. Supply shortages, labor issues, and their attendant impact on inflation are expected to abate over the next 12-18 months, leading to our… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Third Quarter 2021)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF There is no recession within our forecast period. Monetary and fiscal stimulus should continue in the U.S. over our three-year forecast period, yet at a decreasing rate as the economy recovers. After a surge in inflation this year and into next year, resulting from the economic recovery following… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Second Quarter 2021)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Monetary and fiscal stimulus are expected to help propel the U.S. economy through recovery into expansion over our three-year forecast period. Global central banks have been, and should continue to be, excessively accommodative as the world emerges from lockdowns caused by the pandemic. Inflation numbers may appear stark… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (First Quarter 2021)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF The economic recovery is still in the early stages and we maintain that the expected path will be long and slow moving. The Federal Reserve, along with other global central banks, will likely continue to be aggressively accommodative. Another round of fiscal stimulus is expected, which should be… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Fourth Quarter 2020)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF We believe that we are now in an economic recovery which we expect to be long and slow moving. The Federal Reserve will likely continue to be aggressively accommodative, as will other global central banks, providing a favorable backdrop for equities. With an accommodative Fed, we retain elevated… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Third Quarter 2020)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF We expect the current U.S. recession to be deep, yet brief, with a long period of recovery and the potential for expansion toward the latter portion of our forecast period. The Federal Reserve has stabilized the financial markets and ensured the continued functioning of the corporate debt market.… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Second Quarter 2020)
The prospect of a recession in the U.S. is nearly a foregone conclusion. The depth will likely be severe, but the duration could be brief. Actions over the past two weeks by the U.S. Federal Reserve should help mitigate the economic crisis, potentially avoiding problems faced in past downturns. The stimulus package signed into law… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (First Quarter 2020)
The U.S. election season and the more dovish composition of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors should ensure policy accommodation continues in the near-term. The recent resolution of trade policies with China and the prospect for finalization of USMCA produces an environment where corporate capital can be deployed with less uncertainty. Although we hold a… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Fourth Quarter 2019)
The U.S. Federal Reserve and other central banks are expected to continue their accommodative postures, especially considering issues stemming from trade impediments. While we retain a relatively sanguine view of the U.S. economy over our three-year cyclical forecast period, we recognize there is increased potential for an economic downturn. Each strategy reflects a more neutral… Read More »